Artificial Intelligence In The Boardroom

“Algorithm appointed board director” was the title of an article on the BBC News website on 16th May 2014.  “Artificial intelligence gets a seat in the boardroom” was a similar headline three years later on 17th May 2017 on the Nikkei Asian Review news website. Both articles were referring to a computer algorithm called Vital that had been “appointed” to the board of directors of a Hong Kong venture capital firm known as Deep Knowledge Ventures. Citing the Nikkei Asian Review article, “Dmitry Kaminskiy, managing partner of Deep Knowledge Ventures (DKV), believes that the fund would have gone under without Vital because it would have invested in “overhyped projects.” Vital helped the board to make more logical decisions, he said.”

 

By using an algorithm that could sift through masses of data on past investments, the company was able to narrow down on what the least risky investments were in the biotech space that they were playing in. The article continues, “DKV started as a traditional biotechnology fund, with a team of advisers and analysts using traditional methods for trend analysis and due diligence. But the biotech sector has a very high failure rate, with around 96% of drugs not successfully completing clinical trials. DKV then acquired a team of specialists in the analysis of big data – large data sets that can be analyzed by computers to reveal patterns. The team created Vital, the first artificial intelligence system for biotech investment analysis, enabling the fund to identify more than 50 parameters that were critical for assessing risk factors. Kaminsky said: ‘ As we analyzed more and more companies, we were failing to identify those patterns and factors that made a company likely to achieve success. But surprisingly, as we began to analyze thousands of companies, we discovered certain parameters that were good at predicting the risk of failure.’ ”

 

The primary role of a director is twofold: a monitoring and oversight role of past decisions made by management and a forward looking role to oversee formation and execution of strategy. In the DKV example cited above, the role of the algorithm was to help the venture capital board make the right investment decisions. Using big data, the algorithm was able to narrow down which specific drug research areas were yielding better outcomes and provided support to the board on which drug companies to invest in.

 

How could this translate to other non-investing type of companies? It is easy to draw a parallel to the banking industry for example where bank boards have to review and approve lending decisions based on analysis that has been done by a credit manager. While smaller loans have already moved to algorithm based decision making (Mshwari is a good example), the bigger and more complex loans still require human analysis largely due to a poor use of big data within the banking industry. Not sharing historical lending data, which can be easily done on a no-name basis to protect client confidentiality, prevents the banking industry from building a critical database that can be used to provide granular risk patterns for different market and industry segments.

 

While it can be argued that the information is being shared at a credit reference bureau level, what remains to be seen is how this information can be consolidated, analyzed and churned back to the banks to use for determination of probability of repayment. But credit risk analysis which is largely technical, is mainly a management undertaking, and brought to the board for approval. Having AI sort out that decision at management level would significantly reduce the work of the credit committee of the board. One can further argue that AI can also review the entire lending book of the bank, assess the current and potential portfolio at risk, and determine what amount of provisioning is required, as is currently demanded by the new international accounting standards. Which would then eliminate the need for numerous risk analysts within bank management.

 

AI could also potentially review the financial reports produced by management (if not produce the reports themselves) for accuracy. We could go very far with this argument, which is that if machines are able to do a lot more of the monitoring role that management undertakes and reports to the bank’s board, then technically, a lot of the work of the bank board can be reduced to oversight on the formulation and execution of strategy and the more human role of oversight of  key stakeholder engagement such as employees, customers and regulators. The DKV example is really a hyped version of a management decision making tool that is being elevated to board use. But it does spur some thinking for both directors and management on how daily operating decisions can be moved to more accurate algorithm driven processes.

 

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Twitter: @carolmusyoka

 

Credit Reference Bureaus Destroy rather than support credit

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]Two weeks ago, I published an opinion on this page highlighting my experience with an erroneous report that was submitted by my bank to the credit reference bureaus (CRBs). The article generated some interesting feedback from some kindred spirits. Augustine M shared as follows: “I have also experienced a similar issue like yours. A standing order that I had closed 5 years ago, but apparently the bank continued to surcharge and penalize for 4 dark years, only came to my attention when I needed that CRB Credit Report. What made me mad was why my bank, which I understand has rights of set-off to enable them recover from your other accounts with them and clear you, goes ahead to issue a damning report. Yet I had all along another well performing loan with the same bank.”
Well dear Augustine, a major assumption that you are making is that your bank has a universal view of your accounts. Whereas you have a universal view of the bank in terms of all the products and services that you are consuming from them, your bank may have as many separate records of you, as there are services you are consuming. These records are in different databases that don’t talk to each other because they are in different departments. Asking your bank to set off from one account to another, well…that’s just asking for too much efficiency. I mean do you know how many internal approvals have to be sought to get that process approved? You’ve got to be kidding man! Now your bank might be a manyanga bank, meaning it has a supercalifragilisticexpialidocious 21st century operating system and therefore your national identity card number can generate a universal view of your accounts. But then it requires someone to initiate that query. And there’s hundreds of thousands of other retail clients like you. Moreover that would require a rather high level of efficiency. So hang tough bro, they’re just not that into you. One more thing: can you imagine the number of negative reports that the CRBs have of ordinary wananchi who have minor charges on accounts that have failed to be closed? And are now dragging a millstone around their creditworthy necks in the name of credit reporting? Another writer Andrew F had this to say:

“Hello Carol, as soon the CRBs were authorized commercial banks submitted 800,000 negative credit reports! Needless to say, the commercial banks neglected to comply with the new law by notifying the 800,000 account holders who were having their credit histories trashed! Too expensive? It really makes no difference; our commercial banks are out of control and our friends and associates **** (edited out as this is a family newspaper) us royally in plain sight. You knew who to contact which only leaves 799,999 others being trashed without legally required notice.”
Dear Andrew: Are you aware of how many Kenyans must have been temporarily employed during the process of issuing 800,000 negative credit reports? During that period, the unemployment levels for the country took a significant dip and the banks were awarded with the highest Pay As You Earn award from our veritable tax collectors. In fact the bigger issue for me is that by ignoring Section 50 (1) (b) of the Credit Reference Bureau (CRB) Regulations 2013, which requires banks to “notify each customer, within thirty days of the first listing, that his name has been submitted to all licensed Bureaus,” the banking industry deliberately scuttled efforts by Postal Corporation of Kenya to grow its profits through sale of regular postage stamps on the 800,000+ reports that should have been mailed out.
Finally, JK weighed in with these words: “Just thought I would point out great article today in Business Daily, the system is absolutely flawed. In South Africa they forced all bureaus to delete all their information and have all banks resubmit because almost the entire country was listed for one reason or another. I was listed because I owed a bank Kshs 200 for not closing my account with them. I’m surprised a class action has taken this long in Kenya.” Dear JK, thanks very much for reaching out to this pained sister. I have tried to research your point about what happened in South Africa and actually found that in 2005 the South Africans published a National Credit Act which stipulates the type of information that credit bureaus can keep on consumers, how the information is obtained, used, and for how long that information may be kept on their records. More importantly, the Act aims to ensure that credit bureaus keep accurate records on consumers. In a bid to cure the mischief of erroneous credit reporting, the Act in Section 72 gives consumers the right to access and challenge information held by a credit bureau. A key extract of that section provides that a consumer can challenge and request proof of the accuracy of information held by a credit bureau. Should a credit bureau fail to provide the consumer with proof of accuracy of information that the consumer disputes, it is compelled to remove the disputed information from its records. The same section also gives the consumer the right to be advised by a credit provider before certain adverse information about that consumer is passed onto a credit bureau and to receive a copy of that information on request. As we often say in Kenya, it’s not a dearth of laws that we suffer from; rather it is the enforcement of existing law that is the problem. The Credit Reference Bureau regulations in Kenya do protect the consumers, but the protection mechanisms are not being enforced by the banks, either through sheer laziness and ineptitude or utter contempt for the impact of their actions. I like that the South African legislation puts the burden of proof for veracity of information on the credit bureau, which means that a layer has been added for ensuring that consumers are protected from lazy bank processes.

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Twitter: @carolmusyoka[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][/vc_column][/vc_row]

What everyone needs to know about borrowing in Kenya

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]A few weeks ago I received a random text message from a credit reference bureau: “URGENT: This is to notify you of some NEW information on your CREDIT BUREAU records. Send URGENT to 21272 to check now.” (Sic).

It certainly got my attention, and I did exactly as I was exhorted to. I received the credit report on email and discovered that erroneous information had been sent by my bank to the bureau. Did I say erroneous? It was downright wrong. The report related to a six year old dispute on a credit card that in my view had been resolved and forgotten about two years ago. But somehow the dispute resolution slipped through the cracks and 2 years later my name was sent to the credit reference bureau as a defaulter. I bristled in anger. A negative report meant that my personal credit rating would be affected and this would impact on any future borrowing that I may consider undertaking. It also meant that any position for which I would be considered for that requires a positive credit report would be compromised. (A negative credit rating is a mortal sin right below being an adjudged bankrupt in the ten commandments of self-respecting citizens.)

The vein on my right temple throbbed furiously as my legal training kicked in: Never go to a gun battle armed with a toothpick. I googled and found the Credit Reference Bureau (CRB) Regulations 2013, issued by the Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury and gazzetted on 17th January 2014. A slightly lengthy document that isn’t your staple bedside reading, but one that is certainly pertinent for anyone who uses banking services in Kenya. The regulations were created to provide a legal framework for the provision of critical information on the financial behavior of individuals and businesses in the country. The regulations extensively provide guidelines on how credit information should be shared. Why should this interest you? As a consumer of banking services, your bank holds in its puissant hands the power to destroy your reputation with one flick of a button: SEND. A bounced cheque, a defaulted loan or credit card, an account on an overdrawn status., the examples are numerous. But the bank is well within its rights to let its industry brethren know that you are not worthy of the fake leather shoes that you are strutting about in pretending to subscribe to the ten commandments hereinabove mentioned. As a consumer, you are also well within your rights to know who is sending information about you, and the nature of that information. And since the regulations were most likely drafted by ordinary mortals who have experienced the aftermath of a financial peccadillo or two, they took care of that exact fact under Section 50 (1) which reads “ An institution shall (a) notify the customer within one month before a loan becomes non-performing that the institution shall submit to a Bureau the information on the loan immediately it becomes non performing.” I bet you’re sitting at the edge of your seat waiting for me to tell you that I received that awe-inspiring letter from my bank. Well, hang on to your hats a little bit. Section 50 (1) (b) highlights my bank’s obligations to me even further by saying that it should “notify each customer, within thirty days of the first listing, that his name has been submitted to all licensed Bureaus.” Can you hear that? Exactly! What you hear are chirping crickets, because I received absolutely nothing. If it wasn’t for that CRB’s urgent message – of which I have no doubt was motivated to ensure I sent a highly priced text message to request for a “free” report – I would never have known that I was in trouble.

But this story does indeed have a happy ending. Since I knew who exactly needed to receive a sweetly worded missive reflecting my umbrage at the misinformation that was now circulating at CRBs, I got to typing my slight displeasure (please apply sarcasm font as you read this part). A few calls and emails later, my bank quickly rectified the situation and sent a delete record request to the CRBs followed by a profuse apology for which I am grateful for the kind attention that they gave. But they did it because I knew exactly who to send flowery emails to. Not everyone else does.

Two years ago a company that had borrowed funds from a bank, against which a close friend who we shall call Jane had signed personal guarantees as a co-director, underwent some financial distress. The loan was eventually repaid in full. A full year after that loan was repaid, said bank sent a report to the CRBs that succinctly stated that while there was no loan outstanding, Jane had a history of default. Not the company, mind you, Jane specifically. There was zero communication from that bank that they were sending a negative report, and I can’t say I blame them. How do you draft that letter? “Dear Jane, remember that loan for Company X that you signed a personal guarantee for? It was repaid in full last year. But our grubby fingers are itching to hit the SEND button so we feel now is a good time to let all the CRBs in Kenya know that a company you are associated with underwent stress, but the loan was repaid in full. Please don’t catch feelings, it’s never that serious. Yours truly, Totus Ignoramus.”

The next time you see a message titled URGENT from a CRB, it’s not from the thoroughly bored chaps over at Kamiti Maximum Call Centre. It needs your urgent attention. Your bank is talking about you behind your back. Assuming they are doing what the above two banks are doing, it’s likely that they are not informing you. Girdle your loins and ask for your report. Then brace yourself for what you might find.

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Twitter: @carolmusyoka[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][/vc_column][/vc_row]