Driving on borrowed funds

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]Mutua stops John in BuruBuru and asks for the quickest way to Westlands.
John asks, “Are you on foot or in the car?”
Mutua says, “In the car.”
John says, “That’s the quickest way.”

In case you missed it, there is an obscenely symbiotic relationship between the growth of credit supply in Kenya and the now ubiquitous traffic jams that are spreading beyond this cities of Nairobi and Mombasa. Rather than rehash what I have written before, I pulled out some data from the Economic Survey 2015 that was put together by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics so as to get a verified position of my thesis. First let me give credit where it’s due. The 2015 Economic Survey, all 334 pages, is a treasure trove of statistical information on all aspects of the Kenyan economy. It is a very useful tool for looking at historical information about education, health, banking, government and many other sectors as well being able to extrapolate trends if you’re so inclined. Well, the data on vehicle importation was eye-popping to say the least. In the last four years, the annual importation of motor vehicles has grown from Kshs 62.8 billion in 2011 to Kshs 101.7 billion in 2014, a 62% growth in value terms. I know what you’re thinking, as you roll your eyes at this number: it must be the confounded boda bodas that are driving this growth.

Actually it’s not. In 2011, there were 140,215 motorcycle registrations, which was actually the highest in the last four years. By 2014, there were 111,124 motorcycle registrations or a 20% drop. Conversely, lorries and trucks grew from 5,247 in 2011 to 10,681 in 2014, a growth of 103%. Now, I find that quite interesting. What are these lorries hauling? Is this growth in any way related to long distance transportation of goods across East Africa or is it related to the SGR construction where countless Chinese trucks criss cross Mombasa Road moving building materials? I did note that many of them did not bear Kenyan registration plates when I last drove past an SGR construction site so my point might actually be moot (since the KNBS numbers describe actual vehicle registrations) and the growth in truck importations could directly be linked to long distance transportation or phenomenal growth in the building construction industry. But I digress, as I wanted to demonstrate vehicular traffic of the jaw-dropping fame that has now consumed us as a country. In the same period, saloon car registrations grew from 11,026 in 2011 to 15,902 in 2014. That sounds low doesn’t it? 44% growth in 4 years? Well you just wait for the kicker. Registration of station wagons grew from 31,199 to 53,542 or 71% growth in the same four-year period! These are your Proboxes, Toyota Wishes, Nissan Wingroads, Subaru Imprezas, and all manner of station wagons that, together with saloon cars, have transformed our roads into the collective sludge of traffic non-movement. What is financing this phenomenal growth in vehicular traffic? The Kenyan banking industry is.

So I pulled up a fairly decent report issued quarterly by the Central Bank of Kenya. The report, titled “Developments in the Kenyan Banking Sector” provides information on sectoral distribution of loans in the banking industry. Using the quarter one 2012 and quarter one 2015 reports, the not-so-surprising revelation is that lending to the personal/household sector (which is where unsecured consumer lending is recorded) is the single largest borrowing segment in the entire Kenyan banking industry. Let me say that again: loans to individual Kenyans are higher than loans to any other singular sector of the economy. (If I handed in this piece on time, my copy editor would have been able to insert an illustrative table, but time doesn’t allow for this insertion, unfortunately). By December 2011, the banking industry had lent out 318.8 billion to the retail sector, which was 27% of the Kshs 1.1 trillion gross loans and advances. Four years later, the banking industry had lent out 518.2 billion to the same retail sector out of the Kshs 1.97 trillion gross loans and advances. So even as the growth in loans and advances has almost doubled in four years, lending to the personal sector has steadily maintained its rate at just a quarter of total bank lending. The bulk of these loans are personal, unsecured loans that are taken to purchase motor vehicles.
I called up an old friend, who heads up the Risk Department in a Tier One bank here in Kenya. He confirmed my numbers that personal consumer lending at his bank makes up about 55% of the total bank loan book. He dropped another bombshell as a parting shot. He had just returned from a credit conference in South Africa where a consultant had made a presentation on the state of credit in many African economies. In South Africa particularly, the rate of borrowing in most households was at 75%. In Kenya, the research had it at 68%. While the banking industry (and to a lesser but noteworthy extent, the Savings and Credit Cooperative Society industry) have democratized access to credit in this country, a key unintended consequence has been to democratize access to vehicle ownership for Kenyans. What we see on our roads daily will not go away. And for those whose hopes had risen with the increase of excise duty on the smaller capacity vehicles as was done in the last budget, you need to peg your hopes down a notch. Increased taxation will not stop vehicle buyers from purchasing cars; it will only increase the size of loans being requested by consumers. For as long as the banking industry is willing to continue growing its personal unsecured lending segment, there will be more cars on our roads that can only mean even more mind numbing traffic and idiotic over lappers. It might actually be faster to walk to Westlands from BuruBuru than to drive in the next five years!

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Twitter: @carolmusyoka[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Board Directors Do Not Have X-Ray Vision

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]Have you visited ABC Place on Waiyaki Way? If you happen to be driving there you first arrive at a poorly designed ticketing booth, maneuvering your car to an impossible angle that will enable the driver’s window to align with the knob you need to press in order for a parking ticket to emerge. Having just missed scraping the ticketing booth with the front bumper, you lurch forward and find polite but firm security guards who do a car search. These astute and fairly discerning gentlemen request you to open your door, open all the passenger doors, throw a bleary eye into the glove compartment and subject the boot of your car to a physical search. Once done, they will cheerily wave you off. Wait. If you have a handbag, or any other bag in your car, they will not subject it to an internal search since handbags in cars purportedly do not present clear and present danger. So the other day I take a taxi to ABC Place and as we are approaching the vehicular entrance via the deceleration lane, the taxi driver politely asks if I can disembark before he drives in. Why, I ask? He says that if he drives me inside he will have to pay for parking even for the 2 minutes it would take for me to haul myself out. Being of reasonable extraction, I obliged him and stepped out and watched him fishtail out of there in relief. I walked in as if to enter and those usually polite-because-I’m-in-a-car security guards stopped short of baring their teeth at me. I was informed in no uncertain terms that pedestrians have their own entrance, round the back towards the parking exit. I tottered all the way back towards said entrance and had to go through a turnstile, handbag search and security black magic wand over my body. I learnt a valuable lesson that day. Security threats via individuals are to be found more from pedestrians with handbags than occupants of motor vehicles.

Why do I narrate this long and unnecessary soliloquy? Boards of Directors are often managed in a similar manner. I have avoided commenting on the Imperial Bank saga largely because it is difficult to fathom and erroneous to paint a broad brush of culpability on the entire board of directors. It is always an enormous reputational risk that individuals assume when agreeing to join any governance board as they are lending their name to the purported governance mechanisms that the organization subscribes to. To the outsider, a board denotes oversight and accountability and a safe pair of hands that stakeholders have entrusted to protect the organization from unfettered management excesses. But the directors as a collective are in exactly the same position as the security guards at ABC Place. They open doors and check the boot and glove compartment, seeing as much as is physically possible with the naked eye.

The pedestrian body search is done at board committee meetings. Greater detail is discussed and more time is spent with management in understanding the scope of financial and operational issues that the organization encounters. But it is critical to note that the operating system of any institution, just like the engine of a car, can be compromised and it would take a forensic investigation or Oketch your car mechanic to open it up and figure out why that catalytic converter light keeps coming on when your driving at 87 km/h. The management of any organization is the actual owner of the business while shareholders are just owners of capital. The management can deliver or destroy value. Management can aim to execute with integrity but still have a few bad apples that sing from a fraudulent hymn sheet against which tight internal controls and compliance should ideally act as a gatekeeper.

Board directors see what the owners (read management) of the car want them to see. A clean boot, an empty glove compartment and a sparkling interior. The engine may be compromised but the car is running smoothly, or so they think. No smoking gun, no grenades. As a director, you only see what management wants you to see. You can ask questions – very hard questions- but if a (manipulated) system generates legitimate reports that are used to guide board oversight then raking directors over hot coals for poor oversight is placing them in a difficult position. Directors spend less than 3 days a quarter providing oversight on a company’s operations. They do not have access to any of the operating systems, nor should they have. They do not have signing powers over any of the bank accounts, nor should they have. But they do carry a heavy responsibility to ask the right questions and demand audits or deeper external investigation where they get a sense that something is not right.

Now if those that are charged with undertaking those external audits are themselves compromised, then the board’s goose is collectively cooked. I have had the pleasure to professionally engage with audit firms during various board assignments. The role of the auditor is to review the processes with which the financial accounts have been generated, to test the assumptions being made by management as well as to interrogate the inputs into the system and the outputs therefrom. If that system has been compromised at the highest level, you’d need the x-ray vision that our security guards are purported to have to assess handbags in cars. A lot of responsibility is placed on audit firms to be all seeing and all knowing. Collectively heaping blame on auditors whose mandate cannot cover running end-to-end tests of all transactions passed is a flawed abrogation of duty. Whose duty is it then? Is it the board, which only comes in four times a year to provide oversight? Is it the shareholders, who have delegated oversight authority to the board and only come together during the annual general meeting? Or is it management who, in actual truth, are the true owners of the business?

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Twitter: @carolmusyoka[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][/vc_column][/vc_row]